Challenges Facing China’s Qianfan Broadband Network
China’s ambitious Qianfan broadband network, also known as the Thousand Sails Constellation or G60 Starlink, is encountering significant obstacles that threaten its ability to compete with global satellite internet providers like SpaceX’s Starlink. The project aims to deploy a massive constellation of satellites to deliver direct-to-phone internet services worldwide. However, the current pace of launches is far behind schedule, raising concerns about whether the project can meet its goals.
As of now, only 90 satellites have been launched into low Earth orbit for the Qianfan network, well below the target of 648 by the end of this year. This delay is not just a matter of timing; it has broader implications under international regulations that require satellite operators to deploy a certain proportion of their constellation within set timeframes after securing orbits and radio frequencies. Failure to meet these deadlines could result in the loss of critical orbital resources, which are limited and highly sought after.
Shanghai Yuanxin Satellite Technology, the company leading the Qianfan project, has plans to deploy over 15,000 satellites by 2030. To stay on track, the company would need to launch more than 30 satellites per month, aiming for 648 by the end of 2025 for regional coverage and 1,296 two years later for global connectivity. However, achieving these milestones is proving extremely challenging due to a combination of factors.
Rocket Shortages and Launch Capacity
At the heart of the problem is a severe shortage of rockets. China’s manufacturing and launch capacity are struggling to keep up with the demand for satellite deployment. A rocket engineer based in Beijing, who declined to be named due to restrictions on speaking to the media, highlighted that China does not yet have an equivalent to SpaceX’s reusable Falcon 9 rocket. The Falcon 9 allows SpaceX to launch Starlink satellites at a rate of about 24 per mission, flying as often as twice a week. This rapid deployment is a key factor in SpaceX’s success.
In contrast, Chinese satellites are typically launched in batches of 18. Meeting the Qianfan target would require using nearly half of China’s total annual rocket launches, an effort that appears almost impossible given current constraints. “Personally, I expect this shortage to last for at least another decade,” the engineer said.
Launch Bids and Technical Issues
Despite efforts to secure launches, the Qianfan project has faced setbacks. Between August 2024 and March of this year, five batches of Qianfan satellites were launched from the Taiyuan and Wenchang launch centers. However, the company reportedly missed out on two of its bids for rocket contracts. In February, the company sought to deploy 162 satellites in nine launches, requiring a mature rocket capable of sending 4.5 tonnes into an 800km orbit. With fewer than three bids submitted, both tenders were automatically canceled.
The engineer noted that the requirements were demanding, as only a few Long March variants produced by state-owned manufacturers can perform the task. None of the main commercial rockets that technically qualify have flown successfully yet. Additionally, the limited Long March models must be shared with Guowang, another 13,000-satellite broadband constellation under construction. As a state-led project, Guowang would typically take precedence, potentially pushing Qianfan to the back of the queue.
Technical Failures and Orbital Challenges
Beyond the rocket shortages, technical issues have also plagued the Qianfan satellites. Like their Starlink counterparts, Qianfan satellites are deployed at a lower altitude and rely on electric propulsion to climb to their final orbit. However, according to the latest US Air Force tracking data, 17 of the 90 deployed Qianfan satellites have yet to reach their target altitude of around 1,070km, with some lingering near 800km where they were initially released.
With 90 operational satellites, Qianfan ranks as the third-largest broadband constellation in low Earth orbit, behind Starlink and OneWeb. However, the challenges it faces highlight the complexities of deploying large-scale satellite networks and the importance of reliable launch capabilities and technological advancements.
