Escalating Tensions and Political Fallout
Tensions along the Thai-Cambodian border have sparked a significant political crisis in Thailand, with the Pheu Thai-led government facing growing public distrust. Analysts suggest that the government is losing support due to accusations of weak leadership, poor crisis communication, and potential behind-the-scenes dealings.
Public confidence in Pheu Thai had already been on a downward trend, as reflected in the second quarter NIDA Poll conducted from June 19 to 25. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, currently suspended from duty pending a Constitutional Court ruling over a leaked audio clip involving her conversation with Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen, has seen her approval rating drop sharply from 30.90% in the first quarter to just 9.20%.
The decline occurred even before recent border clashes, which have further intensified the situation. Analysts believe the government’s slow response to the violence and its inability to manage crisis communication could further erode public support.
Distrust and Hidden Agendas
Olarn Thinbangtieo, deputy dean of Burapha University’s faculty of political science and law, notes that the Paetongtarn administration has struggled to dispel public doubts about hidden agendas, particularly given the Shinawatra family’s close ties with Hun Sen. The distrust began after a meeting between Paetongtarn’s father, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and Hun Sen at Thaksin’s home in Bangkok following his parole in February last year.
This situation worsened when Paetongtarn was heard criticizing the commander of the Second Army Region and appearing overly willing to yield to Hun Sen’s demands in a leaked conversation. Following the border clashes, the government has faced criticism for its slow response and lack of effective communication. While the military has taken a proactive role, the government’s delayed actions have fueled speculation about hidden interests.
Instead of directly addressing the situation, the government allowed Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, in his capacity as Asean chair, to mediate the conflict. The United States also played a part in the process. Although Malaysia’s involvement aligns with Asean’s approach, Thaksin serves as an adviser to Mr. Anwar, and with his complex relationship with Hun Sen, many suspect Thaksin may have influenced Anwar’s intervention.
Economic and Political Implications
The circumstances have led many to question whether the border conflict is being used as a pretext for deal-making or interest sharing in the overlapping claims area (OCA) between the countries, an area believed to have rich fossil fuel deposits. Olarn said the government’s inaction has only fueled public suspicion, with people questioning if there are hidden interests behind the scenes, particularly involving the Shinawatra and Hun families.
Cambodia has outperformed Thailand in several aspects of the conflict, such as international diplomacy and unity between the government and its military. However, the conservative camp still sees Thaksin and his networks as necessary, so they are likely to maintain their status for now.
Despite this, Olarn expressed doubts about Pheu Thai’s chances of winning the next elections, though Paetongtarn is likely to remain in office as long as there is no court order to remove her.
Public Backlash and Electoral Concerns
Prathuang Muang-on, a lecturer at Ubon Ratchathani University’s political science faculty, noted that the border conflict has eroded confidence in the ruling party. He pointed to open hostility toward Thaksin during his recent visit to Ubon Ratchathani to support civilians displaced by the clashes.
Although the lower Northeast is not traditionally a stronghold for Pheu Thai’s constituency MPs, the party has performed well in the party-list system. However, the border dispute is thought to have cut into the party’s support in Ubon Ratchathani and Si Sa Ket by at least 5%. Even if Paetongtarn steps down and Pheu Thai’s prime ministerial candidate Chaikasem Nitisiri takes over, it is unlikely to make much of a difference.
Court Ruling and Political Future
Korkaew Pikulthong, a red-shirt leader and a Pheu Thai list-MP, admitted the government’s image has suffered from poor communication but insisted the border tensions are unlikely to change the political landscape. He emphasized that the court’s decision is crucial. If the court rules against Paetongtarn, she will be removed, and the fallout could be immense.
He added that the party’s third candidate, Mr. Chaikasem, may not have much backing from the party MPs or coalition partners. It is too soon to say whether the political turbulence marks a turning point, even if Paetongtarn is removed from office, because the court decision would be based on evidence rather than an attempt to eliminate a political family.
Crisis of Faith and Government Challenges
Bhumjaithai Party deputy leader Siripong Angkasakulkiat said the government faces a deep lack of public confidence, and its actions, whether from Thaksin, Paetongtarn, or acting prime minister Phumtham Wechayachai, have done little to inspire trust. He criticized the government’s handling of the border conflict, saying it should have relied on formal, state-level diplomacy instead of a personal tone, which has stirred suspicions.
Siripong also pointed to a lack of coordination and strategic direction within the administration. Many officials appear hesitant to act if there are no clear instructions, possibly out of fear of making missteps or displeasing their superiors or the public. “They do what only they are told. When there are no clear orders, nothing gets done,” he said.
He concluded that the Pheu Thai-led government has a chance to prove itself but missed it. “What they now face is a full-blown crisis of public faith.”