The Ongoing Struggle to Restore Thailand-Cambodia Relations
The recent truce and local-level agreements brokered by Malaysia as the ASEAN chair have brought a temporary respite to the long-standing border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. However, experts suggest that rebuilding bilateral relations will likely take years of sustained effort and strategic diplomacy.
Panitan Wattanayagorn, an international relations expert, emphasized that Thailand must develop effective mechanisms to bring Cambodia back to the negotiation table. He estimates that reconciliation between the two nations could take anywhere from one to five years. The pace of this process may depend heavily on how the relationship between the families of former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen and the Thai Shinawatra family evolves.
Currently, the connection between these two influential families remains strong, which has limited the use of personal channels to resolve the conflict. This dynamic has delayed the reconciliation process, making it more challenging to find common ground.
Asst Prof Prapee Apichatsakol, a lecturer at Srinakharinwirot University and vice president of the American Studies Association in Thailand (ASAT), noted that restoring Thailand-Cambodia relations hinges on whether Cambodia is willing to engage in bilateral talks. Historically, Cambodia has resisted such discussions, often opting to appeal to international bodies to justify its position. According to her, Cambodia has consistently rejected Thailand’s proposed bilateral mechanisms.
The repercussions of the conflict extend beyond the border, affecting not only bilateral relations but also Thailand’s domestic political structure and ASEAN as a whole. Panitan pointed out that the border tensions have spilled into Thailand’s politics, exemplified by the Bhumjaithai Party leaving the coalition after an audio clip leak involving Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen. This event led to a cabinet reshuffle and created uncertainty about Paetongtarn’s future, with the Constitutional Court now considering her fate.
Public trust in the government has declined, as has the trust between the government and the military. Panitan highlighted that the conflict has had a significant impact on Thailand’s political structure. If the government does nothing, it risks losing public support. However, if it takes too much action, it may be accused of being under military control.
Prapee added that the conflict has deepened the divide between the people of both countries, fueled by rapid access to information and social media. Negative sentiments have been amplified, making reconciliation even more difficult.
Panitan also warned that ASEAN must maintain its central role in mediating the conflict, as the involvement of superpowers could destabilize the region. He explained that major powers can influence ASEAN through their “information arms,” supporting the parties they align with. This has led to a reduction in ASEAN unity, which benefits external powers seeking to exploit divisions.
While ASEAN’s efforts to mediate the conflict are important for maintaining its image, the effectiveness of these actions remains uncertain. Prapee pointed out that ASEAN failed to implement its five-point consensus in Myanmar since 2021, raising doubts about its ability to achieve lasting peace in the Thailand-Cambodia dispute.
Panitan suggested that a committee from both sides should work to flesh out the agreement reached during the General Border Committee meeting in Kuala Lumpur on August 4-7, rather than waiting for the next GBC meeting in September. A collaborative effort to combat cross-border crimes and scammers along the border would also help build trust.
An urgent task is to establish an Interim Observer Team (IOT) to inspect areas where future violations of the ceasefire agreement might occur. Both sides need to maintain current troop deployments without further movement and avoid proactive actions that could escalate tensions. Cambodia, which has many informal armies, must also exercise control over these groups.
Panitan emphasized that the most critical milestone is completing the unfinished demarcation, as approximately two-thirds of the work has already been accomplished. He stressed the importance of using all diplomatic mechanisms to ensure that the peace on paper translates into sustainable peace for the next 75 years.
Prapee also called for Thailand to become more diplomatically active in engaging with the global community. She noted that Thailand has lagged behind Cambodia in this area, possibly due to its more advanced armed forces and perceived legitimacy on the global stage. This has made Thailand less prepared and more passive in its approach.
She highlighted that international politics have become more complex with the integration of media and technology. Diplomacy must evolve to keep up with these changes. Thailand needs to better understand the country it is dealing with, recognizing that even smaller nations can be well-prepared and strategically adept.